While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. . Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Weve never done that before.. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Youre not getting anybody perfect. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. . He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Here's why. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. 0:00 0:00. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. And we just want that to continue. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. By Cara Ding. I think all politicians are crooks. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. I think thats what the world needed. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. I dont listen to the news. Theres significant variability among them though. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. She shook her head at the high price of gas. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Please read our comments policy before commenting. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC You have to take the lesser of two evils. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Vance. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Their fear is real, mine is. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Theyre scared. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. He cares about the American people.. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. I trust the system implicitly, he said. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Peoples common sense level is cooked. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. It will cycle through. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. 2016 Trump. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Your email address will not be published. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. She can be reached at
[email protected], Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute.